Insight · 7 October 2026
China becomes a net poultry exporter
After the import surge of the COVID years, China crosses to a structural surplus and ranks fifth among world exporters by 2035.
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In 2020, at the peak of its African swine fever pork shortage, China imported a net 983 thousand tonnes of poultry meat. The OECD-FAO baseline has that deficit closing from 2024 and turning into a surplus of about 648 thousand tonnes by 2035.
At that level China ranks fifth among the world's poultry exporters, behind Brazil, the United States, the European Union and Thailand. The products are different: China's export strength is cooked and processed chicken into Japan, Korea and Hong Kong, where it already competes with Thailand.
Ulnus treats the OECD-FAO projection as a floor rather than a forecast. Market openings and the pace of China's own consumption decide the final number, but the direction, from importer to exporter, is the point that matters for anyone selling into or competing with Chinese poultry.
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035. Ulnus analysis. All poultry meat, ready to cook; net trade is exports minus imports. 2026 onward projected.